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Mar 12

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Solar Risks: Hype Or Truth?

Solar events — flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) are in the news! 

Check out this article:  http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2012/03/08/report-chance-of-a-catastrophic-solar-storm-is-1-in-8/.  A 12% probability is very high for this type of threat.  We are confident that compared to now, the solar flares and CMEs will likely get 2-5x stronger later this year and the first third to half of 2013.  So far, AFC has been right that the flares are getting stronger. 

From this link:  “The potential collateral damage in the U.S. of a larger (Carrington-type) solar storm might be between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in the first year alone, with full recovery taking an estimated four to 10 years, according to a 2008 report from the National Research Council.  The post-storm effects of such an event are underestimated by the majority of the world’s population, including our political leadership.  Like an electro magentic pulse attack, according to the National Research Council, a massive enough solar storm could have long term effects that ”would likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration.”

So the question is:  is the risk of a major solar flare all hype and sensationalistic, or is there a reason to be forewarned?

The likely answer is:  if a nasty (i.e., strong) solar flare were to hit in the ‘wrong place’ at the ‘wrong time’, damage would be equal to multiples of Hurricane Katrina.  NASA has calculated the theoretical damage, and has been issuing warnings for some time now.  Potential solar flare damage is likely going to happen at some point, but when and where and by how much … while challenging can be ascertained to a certain degree.  A solar storm IS by its very nature considered a ‘wild card’ event.  Black swan risk events do happen, and when they do, their potential damage can be catastrophic.

There are things a company can do to better hedge against this risk.  If you’re interested, please feel free to get in touch with us, and we’ll tell you what we’re doing with many clients around the world in helping them to minimize planetary and extraterrestrial risks (like solar storms).

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/solar-risks-hype-or-truth/