Oct 26

Sensationalism And Lies In Forecasting Storms

Let’s talk about Sandy — once a hurricane in the Caribbean, which is still forecast to do “incredible damage”.  I have a real problem with fear-mongering by control freaks, especially when it comes to storms.
Words like “storm of biblical proportions” and “Frankenstorm” — used to describe tropical entity Sandy at this time (Friday evening Eastern Time, October 26, 2012) — really boggle my mind. Unfortunately, most of what you are reading and hearing in the public domain is absolute exaggeration. I even see lies coming out from scientific groups.  Sorry, I have to be blunt. These days, apparently, it is all about the ratings. The science has gone out the window but not from AFC! 
Sandy is falling part. It is just a 70 mph tropical storm now — but it is even incredulous that even the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is not reporting the wind speed properly (it only says it might be less than a hurricane at this time in its discussion page — a part which very few read — and essentially ignore the RECON data that we get too that says Sandy really has been downgraded from a hurricane).  It IS important. 
The bottom line is this:  Sandy will be absorbed by a large dip in the Jetstream at the weekend and as a result, we are talking about a “moderate” Nor’easter.  Yes it will rain with some areas seeing flooding (i.e., flash floods and river flooding). Yes you will see squally winds to 55 mph. Yes you will see a million without power.  And yes there will be some damage.  Things like this happen in a Nor’easter as many in the East well know.  But Sandy is NOT a “one-in-a-hundred” year storm. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
The sensationalism that I am seeing and hearing is pathetic at best and grossly wrong, even bordering criminal, at worst. 
It is just plain wrong for people — other meteorologists AND the NHC — to NOT report the exact truth and rather embellish the facts.
Yes, it is always good to have extra water / food / batteries / candles, etc. on hand no matter what.  The trouble with potential disasters is that most are only “taught” (or instructed) to get so-called prepared when something is visible and coming (like a storm).  But in reality, most disasters come WITHOUT warning.  Just look at Fukushima (one catastrophe that continues today, and we hardly see anything of that in the news).  That is why I say it’s always good to get those extra supplies, because when a REAL disaster, God forbid, hits, you will thank your lucky stars that you were proactive.
My bottom line is this:  people need to know the facts so they can make the best decisions. Mainstream Media must stop this nonsense of crying wolf. Otherwise, when the real “Supercane” or the “Dracula Storm of Halloween” (or whatever the next name they come up with) DOES come, nobody will believe it … and many sheep  (the Sheeple) will be eaten (perish)!
Dr. Simon R. R. Atkins
Climate Risk Economist
Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC]

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/sensationalism-and-lies-in-forecasting-storms/

Apr 04

The UN Forgets The Global Cooling Bit

The United Nations says that climate emissions must be curbed, and that is all well and good.  AFC’s main car is a Prius.  But, what the UN fails to understand is that beside warming, droughts and severe storms, there are also extremes in the opposite direction — namely, record-breaking cold and flooding.  It is not global warming, it is climate change … and there are cycles as well as larger-scale factors that make our planetary weather become more volatile at times … namely, the solar cycle and the other part of physics / weather like the Chandler Wobble that not many yet consider.  Planetary electromagnetics is also a huge part of the equation … that is, Earth has a magnetosphere, and this is in constant flux due to solar flares hitting upon it.  Look up these key words (solar cycle, magnetospherem ), or simply get in touch with us to become “more in the know” so you gain more. 

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/the-un-forgets-the-global-cooling-bit/

Apr 04

Extreme Weather is the New Normal

There is no question that extreme (weather and planetary) events and damages have been increasing:  http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=107297.  However, do know that scientifically, there is huge evidence to show clearly that carbon emissions is not the main driver of climate change.  Bigger forces – like the solar cycle, shifting magnetics on Earth, large-scale / decadal cycles in ocean patterns, and many more factors are largely responsible for increasing extremes … not to forget that weather-cost impacts are rising also because construction and populations are increasing at the global coastlines.

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/extreme-weather-is-the-new-normal/

Mar 31

New AFC Planetary News

AFC is excited to announce our new Weather News Reel which brings to you current new and research in planetary risks. Check it out by following this link : AFC Weather News Reel

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/new-afc-planetary-news/

Mar 26

Lack Of Water A Cause For War

This article (http://news.yahoo.com/us-intel-water-cause-war-coming-decades-124621169.html) confirms one of our predictions of a ‘big-picture’ theme:  the topic of water and conflict (tension to potential war).

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/solar-storms-join-floods-terrorism-as-risks/

Mar 19

Risk Mgmt Top Priority For Weather-Wary Growers

At least 70% of growers reported they intend to add more proactive protection strategies to their 2012 crop production plans to cope with uncertain weather conditions.  The central or pivotal point in getting ahead in weather and agriculture is investing in technologically-superior longer-range weather risk predictions in order to plan ahead best, minimize risks and optimize decisions … thereby improving margins.  Take a look at our solutions and begin to know that you too can receive advanced predictions, customized to your exact needs.  (Here is the original article:  http://www.croplife.com/article/26401/study-risk-management-top-priority-for-weather-wary-growers).

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/risk-mgmt-top-priority-for-weather-wary-growers/

Mar 12

Solar Risks: Hype Or Truth?

Solar events — flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) are in the news! 

Check out this article:  http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2012/03/08/report-chance-of-a-catastrophic-solar-storm-is-1-in-8/.  A 12% probability is very high for this type of threat.  We are confident that compared to now, the solar flares and CMEs will likely get 2-5x stronger later this year and the first third to half of 2013.  So far, AFC has been right that the flares are getting stronger. 

From this link:  “The potential collateral damage in the U.S. of a larger (Carrington-type) solar storm might be between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in the first year alone, with full recovery taking an estimated four to 10 years, according to a 2008 report from the National Research Council.  The post-storm effects of such an event are underestimated by the majority of the world’s population, including our political leadership.  Like an electro magentic pulse attack, according to the National Research Council, a massive enough solar storm could have long term effects that ”would likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration.”

So the question is:  is the risk of a major solar flare all hype and sensationalistic, or is there a reason to be forewarned?

The likely answer is:  if a nasty (i.e., strong) solar flare were to hit in the ‘wrong place’ at the ‘wrong time’, damage would be equal to multiples of Hurricane Katrina.  NASA has calculated the theoretical damage, and has been issuing warnings for some time now.  Potential solar flare damage is likely going to happen at some point, but when and where and by how much … while challenging can be ascertained to a certain degree.  A solar storm IS by its very nature considered a ‘wild card’ event.  Black swan risk events do happen, and when they do, their potential damage can be catastrophic.

There are things a company can do to better hedge against this risk.  If you’re interested, please feel free to get in touch with us, and we’ll tell you what we’re doing with many clients around the world in helping them to minimize planetary and extraterrestrial risks (like solar storms).

Permanent link to this article: http://afcw.com/solar-risks-hype-or-truth/

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